For the last two months of the year, the association expects sales to increase by three percent to just over 102 billion euros.

The Germans are officially in bargain and shopping fever. According to the Federal Statistical Office, it is above all rising consumer spending that is currently giving the economy positive impetus. Consumers spent around 2.1 percent more in the third quarter than in the previous year. In addition, the number of people in employment is rising. 45.4 million people are currently in paid employment, an increase of 0.8 percent compared to 2018. Consumers also have more money at their disposal, as compensation for employees has risen sharply by 4.4 percent. All these are good omens for the two shopping events that are just around the corner. On the one hand the combination of Black Friday / Cyber Monday and on the other the approaching Christmas business. The German Retail Association HDE is certain that new records will be set here. For the Black Friday business it expects 3.1 billion euros and for the Christmas business more than 100 billion euros.

Online shoppers spend around 54 euros on Black Friday

Whether Lego, myToys or Zalando: numerous retailers took part in the shopping event Black Friday last week. For many of them a real bargain week has established itself with daily new offers. Consumers now know and appreciate this campaign. “Black Friday and Cyber Monday are becoming increasingly well-known and popular in Germany,” says HDE Managing Director Stefan Genth. For retailers, this promises good business with an increase in turnover of 22 percent to over three billion euros. According to the HDE survey, one third of German online shoppers plan to use Black Friday and 23 percent Cyber Monday for shopping. Consumers who make Christmas purchases online on both days of the campaign are expected to spend around 54 euros per person this year. “This sets an important sales impulse in the Christmas business. Both campaign days have become firmly established in the shopping calendar of bargain hunters over the last few years. More and more online retailers and stationary stores are therefore offering targeted promotional goods,” says Genth.

HDE raises sales forecast to over 540 billion euros

The HDE is also optimistic about the Christmas business as a whole. For the last two months of the year, the association expects sales to increase by three percent to just over 102 billion euros. Online sales in the Christmas business are expected to be just under 15 billion euros. This corresponds to an increase of almost eleven percent compared to the previous year. The trend of previous years is continuing for gifts. The most frequently purchased gifts are from the food, toys, books/stationery, perfume/cosmetics and electrical goods sectors. Most of the money is spent on gifts, vouchers and toys. However, the current survey by the HDE also reveals differences. “Smaller companies are much more cautious, while the majority of larger retailers expect better business than in the previous year,” says Genth. In view of the good consumer sentiment, the HDE is raising its sales forecast for the year. It now anticipates an increase of 3.2 percent and total annual sales of 543.7 billion euros.


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Link: The German Retail Association (Handelsverband Deutschland HDE) asked the retail trade about its sales estimates.

Picture: iStock